FPL · GW5 brief

Every player's next gameweek, in points.

Predicted points from each player's match record, checked against the world's top 50 managers. DEFCON detail included.

Updated GW 4 · 02:36

THE BUYBUY
Gibbs-White
Gibbs-White
NFONFO · MID · £7.9m
5.7

Predicted 5.7 pts next GW, form 6.5. Even run next.

THE DIFFERENTIAL2% of top 50
Emersonn
Emersonn
IPSIPS · FWD · £5.5m
5.6

Predicted 5.6 pts, owned by 2% of the top 50 and 1.9% overall.

THE TRAPHOLD
Konsa
Konsa
ARSARS · DEF · £4.5m
3.0

Owned by 48% of the top 50, but P(start) is only 67%. Wait.

#PlayerPos£mNext 5
1João PedroJoão PedroCHECHEFWD7.86.58.3100%C 26%0.000.000
  • BRE (A)
  • BOU (H)
  • EVE (A)
  • TOT (H)
  • MUN (H)
2HaalandHaalandMCIMCIFWD15.56.48.034%0.000.000
  • MUN (A)
  • SUN (H)
  • LIV (A)
  • IPS (H)
  • AVL (A)
3CherkiCherkiMCIMCIMID7.86.38.32%0.160.021
  • MUN (A)
  • SUN (H)
  • LIV (A)
  • IPS (H)
  • AVL (A)
4B.FernandesB.FernandesMUNMUNMID12.06.19.038%0.140.012
  • MCI (H)
  • FUL (A)
  • TOT (H)
  • LEE (A)
  • BOU (H)
5GakpoGakpoLIVLIVMID7.26.07.38%0.420.059
  • BOU (A)
  • MCI (H)
  • BRE (A)
  • BHA (H)
  • ARS (H)
6GvardiolGvardiolMCIMCIDEF5.65.97.310%0.300.054
  • MUN (A)
  • SUN (H)
  • LIV (A)
  • IPS (H)
  • AVL (A)
7TavernierTavernierBOUBOUMID6.05.77.326%0.120.020
  • LIV (H)
  • CHE (A)
  • SUN (H)
  • MUN (A)
  • LEE (H)
8Gibbs-WhiteGibbs-WhiteNFONFOMID7.95.76.532%0.120.015
  • COV (H)
  • CRY (A)
  • ARS (H)
  • IPS (A)
  • BRE (A)
9TarkowskiTarkowskiEVEEVEDEF6.05.67.332%0.760.127
  • IPS (H)
  • HUL (A)
  • CHE (H)
  • ARS (A)
  • NEW (A)
10EmersonnEmersonnIPSIPSFWD5.55.66.02%0.000.000
  • EVE (A)
  • FUL (H)
  • MCI (A)
  • NFO (H)
  • HUL (A)
11ElangaElangaNEWNEWMID6.25.66.02%0.140.022
  • LEE (A)
  • HUL (H)
  • COV (A)
  • AVL (H)
  • CRY (A)
12RogersRogersCHECHEMID7.75.56.872%0.120.016
  • BRE (A)
  • BOU (H)
  • EVE (A)
  • TOT (H)
  • MUN (H)
13GuéhiGuéhiMCIMCIDEF6.05.56.74%0.300.050
  • MUN (A)
  • SUN (H)
  • LIV (A)
  • IPS (H)
  • AVL (A)
14DavisDavisIPSIPSDEF4.05.55.84%0.260.066
  • EVE (A)
  • FUL (H)
  • MCI (A)
  • NFO (H)
  • HUL (A)
15SakaSakaARSARSMID9.55.47.520%0.120.013
  • BHA (A)
  • LEE (H)
  • NFO (A)
  • EVE (H)
  • LIV (A)
16MbeumoMbeumoMUNMUNMID7.95.47.022%0.140.018
  • MCI (H)
  • FUL (A)
  • TOT (H)
  • LEE (A)
  • BOU (H)
17SchadeSchadeBREBREMID6.05.47.522%0.120.020
  • CHE (H)
  • AVL (A)
  • LIV (H)
  • HUL (A)
  • NFO (H)
18PalmerPalmerCHECHEMID9.75.46.586%C 70%0.120.013
  • BRE (A)
  • BOU (H)
  • EVE (A)
  • TOT (H)
  • MUN (H)
19HallHallNEWNEWDEF5.25.36.024%0.870.168
  • LEE (A)
  • HUL (H)
  • COV (A)
  • AVL (H)
  • CRY (A)
20BelloumiBelloumiHULHULMID5.05.36.80%0.420.085
  • NEW (A)
  • EVE (H)
  • FUL (A)
  • BRE (H)
  • IPS (H)
21ScottScottBOUBOUMID6.15.27.02%0.620.102
  • LIV (H)
  • CHE (A)
  • SUN (H)
  • MUN (A)
  • LEE (H)
22IsakIsakLIVLIVFWD9.15.26.346%0.000.000
  • BOU (A)
  • MCI (H)
  • BRE (A)
  • BHA (H)
  • ARS (H)
23ØdegaardØdegaardARSARSMID6.75.16.86%0.120.018
  • BHA (A)
  • LEE (H)
  • NFO (A)
  • EVE (H)
  • LIV (A)
24JaneltJaneltBREBREMID5.05.16.30%0.870.174
  • CHE (H)
  • AVL (A)
  • LIV (H)
  • HUL (A)
  • NFO (H)
25BarnesBarnesNEWNEWMID6.05.05.710%0.140.023
  • LEE (A)
  • HUL (H)
  • COV (A)
  • AVL (H)
  • CRY (A)
26MitchellMitchellCRYCRYDEF4.54.94.312%0.260.058
  • LEE (A)
  • NFO (H)
  • BHA (A)
  • NEW (H)
  • TOT (A)
27StachStachLEELEEMID6.04.96.30%0.710.118
  • NEW (H)
  • CRY (H)
  • ARS (A)
  • MUN (H)
  • SUN (A)
28MurilloMurilloNFONFODEF5.54.94.82%1.010.184
  • COV (H)
  • CRY (A)
  • ARS (H)
  • IPS (A)
  • BRE (A)
29M.SangaréM.SangaréBREBREMID5.74.95.54%1.000.175
  • CHE (H)
  • AVL (A)
  • LIV (H)
  • HUL (A)
  • NFO (H)
30WissaWissaNEWNEWFWD6.24.84.310%0.000.000
  • LEE (A)
  • HUL (H)
  • COV (A)
  • AVL (H)
  • CRY (A)

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How we compute this

Predicted points turn each player's own goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, bonus and defensive contribution into per-90 rates, shrink them toward league rates, and scale them by next-fixture difficulty and expected minutes. Top-50 own is how many of the world's 50 best managers hold the player right now. The DEFCON column keeps the defensive slice visible: hit probability times 2, from the last 5 matches (60%) blended with the season (40%).

Full methodology