FPL · GW5 brief

Every player's next gameweek, in points.

Predicted points from each player's match record, checked against the world's top 50 managers. DEFCON detail included.

Updated GW 4 · 12:37

THE BUYBUY
Haaland
Haaland
MCIMCI · FWD · £15.5m
6.8

Predicted 6.8 pts next GW, form 8.3. Even run next.

THE DIFFERENTIAL0% of top 50
Emersonn
Emersonn
IPSIPS · FWD · £5.5m
5.6

Predicted 5.6 pts, owned by 0% of the top 50 and 2.3% overall.

THE TRAPHOLD
De Cuyper
De Cuyper
BHABHA · DEF · £4.8m
5.0

Owned by 88% of the top 50, but 3 of the next 5 are rated 4 or worse. Wait.

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How we compute this

Predicted points turn each player's own goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, bonus and defensive contribution into per-90 rates, shrink them toward league rates, and scale them by next-fixture difficulty and expected minutes. Top-50 own is how many of the world's 50 best managers hold the player right now. The DEFCON column keeps the defensive slice visible: hit probability times 2, from the last 5 matches (60%) blended with the season (40%).

Full methodology