FPL · GW10 brief

Every player's next gameweek, in points.

Predicted points from each player's match record, checked against the world's top 50 managers. DEFCON detail included.

Updated GW 9 · 21:27

THE BUYBUY
Groß
Groß
BHABHA · MID · £6.2m
6.1

Predicted 6.1 pts next GW, form 5.4. Even run next.

THE DIFFERENTIAL6% of top 50
Trafford
Trafford
LEELEE · GK · £5.0m
4.8

Predicted 4.8 pts, owned by 6% of the top 50 and 6.3% overall.

THE TRAPHOLD
Manzambi
Manzambi
AVLAVL · MID · £6.1m
3.7

Owned by 68% of the top 50, but P(start) is only 63%. Wait.

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How we compute this

Predicted points turn each player's own goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, bonus and defensive contribution into per-90 rates, shrink them toward league rates, and scale them by next-fixture difficulty and expected minutes. Top-50 own is how many of the world's 50 best managers hold the player right now. The DEFCON column keeps the defensive slice visible: hit probability times 2, from the last 5 matches (60%) blended with the season (40%).

Full methodology