How good are the predictions?
Every gameweek we lock the final pre-deadline predictions and grade them against what actually happened. Wins and misses, names included.
GW5 predictions are locked. The first report card lands when the gameweek finishes.
Scored automatically by the twice-daily data build.
How we compute this
We score every player we backed to play (P(start) 50%+) who got minutes: mean absolute error between predicted and actual points, the bias (positive means we over-promise), and how many of our predicted top 10 finished in the actual top 20. Players who got zero minutes are excluded — that is a rotation miss, tracked by the minutes model, not a scoring miss.