Methodology

Two games, one site

fplanalytic covers two separate fantasy games. DEFCON, Live and Value serve the official Premier League game (FPL), where defensive contribution is a scoring rule. European Nights serves UEFA's Champions League Fantasy, a different game with its own scoring; it has no DEFCON rule, though it does award a point per three ball recoveries. Nothing you read on one game's pages applies to the other.

Predicted points (v1)

The headline number for every player is his predicted FPL points for the next gameweek, built only from his own match record. We turn his goals, assists, clean sheets, saves, bonus and defensive contribution into per-90-minute rates, shrink each rate toward the league average for his position (three virtual matches, so a hot two-game start does not read as certainty), then scale by the next fixture: easier opponents raise attacking returns and clean-sheet odds, harder ones lower them, with a small boost at home. A minutes model estimates the chance he starts and how long he plays; every component is multiplied by expected minutes. The breakdown in each player's profile shows exactly where the number comes from — minutes, goals, assists, clean sheet, saves, bonus and DEFCON, in points.

What the world's best managers think

Prediction models miss things humans catch: press conferences, eye tests, price momentum. So next to every prediction we show the consensus of the top 50 managers in the world — the current leaders of FPL's overall ranking, whose squads are public through the official API. “Top-50 own” is the share of those 50 squads holding the player; the C badge is how many captain him. A player our model rates highly whom the elite ignore is a genuine differential; one the elite pile into despite a tough run is flagged as a trap. Their picks refresh with every data build.

The DEFCON rule

Since 2025/26, FPL awards 2 points for defensive contribution, at most once per match. Defenders need 10 or more combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles. Midfielders and forwards need 12 or more, and their count also includes ball recoveries.

Hit rate

A hit is a match where the player reached the threshold. We only count matches with 60 or more minutes played; a short cameo says nothing about a player's engine. The headline hit rate blends recent form with the season: 60% weight on the last 5 qualifying matches, 40% on the whole season. With fewer than 5 qualifying matches we use the season rate alone. The blend is then shrunk toward the league rate for the position with four virtual matches, so a perfect two-match start reads as roughly 50%, not certainty.

Near miss

A near miss is a match finishing 1 or 2 actions short of the threshold. A defender who keeps landing on 9 is closer to points than his hit rate suggests. High near-miss rates are a buy signal, not a flaw.

DEFCON xPts and value

DEFCON xPts per match is the blended hit probability times 2 — it is the defensive slice of the total prediction, kept visible on its own because it is this site's specialty. Value is DEFCON xPts divided by price in millions. Consistency is 1 minus the coefficient of variation of the player's actions: steadier engines score closer to their average every week.

Decisions

The Buy, Hold and Avoid calls follow one fixed rule for every position, on the same predicted-points number the page shows. Buy needs 4+ predicted points, a 75%+ chance of starting and a next-5 run that is not brutal (average difficulty 3.5 or easier). An injury, suspension or availability flag, a starting chance under 50%, or fewer than 2.5 predicted points is Avoid. Everything else is Hold. The one-line reason always shows the numbers behind the call.

Data source and refresh

All data comes from the official FPL API. Profiles are rebuilt twice a day, at 06:10 and 18:10 UTC. Each page shows the gameweek and time of its last update.

Known limitations

• Early in a season the sample is small; hit rates move a lot until roughly gameweek 6.
• Fixture difficulty uses FPL's own FDR, which is a blunt instrument against low-block opponents.
• Minutes risk uses FPL status flags, which can lag press-conference news.

What we do not do

No black-box machine learning. No hidden weightings. No paid boosts to rankings. If a number cannot be explained on this page in plain English, it does not ship.