Champions League Fantasy · league phase

European Nights

Matchday 2

Match predictions and expected points for every squad, built for your captain call.

First kickoff

13 Oct, 16:45

Tue, 13 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Model fit

matches · Elo + Dixon-Coles

Captain picks

P(start) blends minutes with UEFA's own availability flags; lineups can still surprise

M. Ødegaard

ARS · MID · €7.0m · v LIL (H)

1st

8.4xPtsP(start) 97%

G 5.2REC 0.7POTM 0.5

Picked by 7% of all managers· buying now ▲

D. Upamecano

BAY · DEF · €5.5m · v VIK (A)

2nd

6.6xPtsP(start) 97%

REC 1.9G 1.7CS 1.5

Picked by 15% of all managers· buying now ▲

M. Bartra

BET · DEF · €4.5m · v POR (H)

3rd

6.6xPtsP(start) 97%

CS 1.5REC 1.4G 1.4

Picked by 2% of all managers· buying now ▲

THE CROWD'S CALLK. Mbappé is the most-picked player — 57% of all managers own him.Our model has him at 4.0 xPts v ROM (A).

The predicted XI

4-4-2 · 68.9 xPts combined

D. Raya4.5

D. Upamecano6.6

M. Bartra6.6

M. Guéhi6.0

Carlos Augusto6.0

M. Ødegaard8.4

B. Saka6.4

Raphinha6.3

M. Olise6.1

E. Haaland6.2

S. Guirassy6.0

The captain call

M. Ødegaard16.7xPts doubled

ARS v LIL (H) · P(start) 97%

How we compute this

The highest combined xPts across valid formations, with UCL Fantasy's maximum of three players per club. It ignores the budget on purpose: this is the XI we would field, not a purchasable squad.

Full methodology

Match predictions

2.2 – 1.4

Tue 16:45 UTC

most likely 2–1

RCL 54%draw 22%SCP 24%

Clean sheet: RCL 24% · SCP 11%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.4 – 1.7

Tue 16:45 UTC

most likely 1–1

SAB 31%draw 25%SLP 43%

Clean sheet: SAB 18% · SLP 24%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

3.1 – 0.9

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 3–0

INT 80%draw 13%CLU 7%

Clean sheet: INT 42% · CLU 5%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.3 – 2.3

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–2

GAL 19%draw 21%BAR 60%

Clean sheet: GAL 10% · BAR 28%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.5 – 1.1

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–1

ATM 45%draw 28%MUN 27%

Clean sheet: ATM 34% · MUN 23%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

3.1 – 0.5

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 3–0

ARS 87%draw 10%LIL 3%

Clean sheet: ARS 58% · LIL 4%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

0.8 – 2.6

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 0–2

VIK 9%draw 16%BAY 75%

Clean sheet: VIK 8% · BAY 45%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.7 – 1.2

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–1

RBL 50%draw 26%PSV 25%

Clean sheet: RBL 31% · PSV 18%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.8 – 0.9

Tue 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–1

VIL 59%draw 24%NAP 17%

Clean sheet: VIL 41% · NAP 16%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

0.7 – 1.6

Wed 16:45 UTC

most likely 0–1

LAS 15%draw 27%LIV 58%

Clean sheet: LAS 20% · LIV 50%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.8 – 2.0

Wed 16:45 UTC

most likely 1–1

FEY 34%draw 23%COM 43%

Clean sheet: FEY 14% · COM 17%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.3 – 1.2

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–1

ROM 38%draw 30%RMA 32%

Clean sheet: ROM 31% · RMA 28%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

2.2 – 0.9

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 2–0

MCI 65%draw 21%PSG 14%

Clean sheet: MCI 39% · PSG 11%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.2 – 2.2

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–1

BOD 20%draw 22%BVB 58%

Clean sheet: BOD 11% · BVB 29%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

2.7 – 0.8

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 2–0

AVL 75%draw 16%FEN 9%

Clean sheet: AVL 43% · FEN 7%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

2.7 – 0.8

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 2–0

BET 78%draw 15%POR 8%

Clean sheet: BET 46% · POR 7%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.3 – 0.7

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–0

SHK 51%draw 31%AEK 18%

Clean sheet: SHK 51% · AEK 26%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

1.3 – 2.2

Wed 19:00 UTC

most likely 1–2

SVB 22%draw 22%VFB 56%

Clean sheet: SVB 11% · VFB 26%

How we compute this

Elo plus a Dixon-Coles goals model, fitted on 18 Champions League matches with early-season shrinkage. Probabilities come from the full scoreline matrix.

Full methodology

Expected points · all positions

Updated 2026-09-13 03:42 UTC

#	Player	Pos	€m	Opp	P(start)	xPts	Picked	/€m	Breakdown
1	M. ØdegaardARS	MID	7.0	LIL (H)	97%	8.36	7%▲	1.19	G 5.2REC 0.7POTM 0.5
2	D. UpamecanoBAY	DEF	5.5	VIK (A)	97%	6.60	15%▲	1.20	REC 1.9G 1.7CS 1.5
3	M. BartraBET	DEF	4.5	POR (H)	97%	6.59	2%▲	1.47	CS 1.5REC 1.4G 1.4
4	B. SakaARS	MID	8.5	LIL (H)	92%	6.41	3%	0.75	G 3.7REC 0.7CS 0.4
5	RaphinhaBAR	MID	9.5	GAL (A)	90%	6.27	43%▲	0.66	G 3.2REC 0.8POTM 0.5
6	E. HaalandMCI	FWD	11.0	PSG (H)	97%	6.17	22%▲	0.56	G 3.9POTM 0.5
7	M. OliseBAY	MID	9.0	VIK (A)	97%	6.07	46%▲	0.68	G 2.3REC 0.9POTM 0.5
8	M. GuéhiMCI	DEF	5.0	PSG (H)	97%	5.97	9%▲	1.20	REC 1.9CS 1.3G 1.2
9	Carlos AugustoINT	DEF	4.0	CLU (H)	97%	5.96	2%▲	1.49	G 1.5CS 1.4REC 1.3
10	S. GuirassyBVB	FWD	8.5	BOD (A)	97%	5.95	10%▲	0.70	G 2.4A 1.1POTM 0.5
11	GabrielARS	DEF	6.0	LIL (H)	97%	5.67	27%▲	0.95	CS 1.9REC 1.5G 0.4
12	E. KonsaARS	DEF	4.5	LIL (H)	97%	5.60	5%▲	1.25	CS 1.9REC 1.4G 0.4
13	A. DiaoCOM	MID	5.0	FEY (A)	97%	5.56	1%▲	1.11	G 2.3REC 0.8A 0.6
14	L. YamalBAR	MID	10.0	GAL (A)	97%	5.53	34%▲	0.55	G 2.2REC 0.9A 0.5
15	B. WhiteARS	DEF	5.0	LIL (H)	97%	5.51	3%▲	1.10	CS 1.9REC 1.2A 0.8
16	D. SzoboszlaiLIV	MID	7.0	LAS (A)	97%	5.48	16%▲	0.78	G 1.6REC 1.3POTM 0.5
17	Y. BisseckINT	DEF	4.5	CLU (H)	97%	5.48	1%	1.22	G 1.5CS 1.4REC 1.2
18	A. DaviesBAY	DEF	5.0	VIK (A)	97%	5.46	5%▲	1.09	CS 1.5REC 1.4G 0.8
19	Lautaro MartínezINT	FWD	9.5	CLU (H)	97%	5.41	3%▲	0.57	G 2.1A 1.5REC 0.3
20	S. DestPSV	DEF	5.0	RBL (A)	97%	5.34	3%▲	1.07	G 1.7REC 1.2CS 0.6
21	S. MouriñoVIL	DEF	4.0	NAP (H)	97%	5.32	1%▲	1.33	REC 1.6CS 1.3G 0.9
22	M. BaturinaCOM	MID	5.5	FEY (A)	84%	5.31	3%▲	0.97	G 2.0A 0.7REC 0.6
23	Pau TorresAVL	DEF	4.5	FEN (H)	97%	5.24	1%▲	1.16	CS 1.4REC 1.4A 0.9
24	F. ThauvinRCL	MID	6.5	SCP (H)	97%	5.17	1%	0.80	G 1.4REC 0.9POTM 0.5
25	Bruno FernandesMUN	MID	9.0	ATM (A)	97%	5.13	19%	0.57	G 2.0REC 0.8A 0.4
26	J. TahBAY	DEF	5.0	VIK (A)	97%	5.12	6%▲	1.02	REC 1.6CS 1.5G 0.3
27	P. HincapiéARS	DEF	4.5	LIL (H)	97%	5.12	4%▲	1.14	CS 1.9REC 1.6
28	R. CherkiMCI	MID	7.0	PSG (H)	80%	5.09	15%	0.73	G 1.7A 1.0REC 0.8
29	V. BondarSHK	DEF	4.5	AEK (H)	97%	5.05	0%	1.12	REC 1.7CS 1.7
30	M. LlorenteATM	MID	6.5	MUN (H)	97%	5.03	2%▲	0.78	G 1.7REC 0.9A 0.4
31	Junior FirpoBET	DEF	4.5	POR (H)	97%	5.02	0%	1.12	CS 1.5REC 1.4G 0.3
32	P. FornalsBET	MID	5.0	POR (H)	97%	4.93	1%	0.99	A 1.1G 0.9REC 0.8
33	H. BellerínBET	DEF	4.5	POR (H)	97%	4.92	0%	1.09	CS 1.5REC 1.3G 0.3
34	J. McGinnAVL	MID	6.5	FEN (H)	97%	4.88	1%▲	0.75	A 0.9REC 0.9G 0.7
35	Pedro HenriqueSHK	DEF	4.0	AEK (H)	97%	4.84	0%	1.21	CS 1.7REC 1.5
36	Troy ParrottBET	FWD	5.0	POR (H)	97%	4.81	1%▲	0.96	G 2.2A 0.7
37	Ronald AraújoLIV	DEF	4.5	LAS (A)	97%	4.81	3%▲	1.07	CS 1.7REC 1.2A 0.4
38	R. RiquelmeBET	MID	5.0	POR (H)	97%	4.81	0%	0.96	A 1.1G 0.9REC 0.7
39	A. MaksimovićRBL	MID	4.5	PSV (H)	89%	4.78	0%	1.06	G 1.8REC 0.8A 0.4
40	C. JonesINT	MID	5.5	CLU (H)	97%	4.72	0%▲	0.86	G 1.0REC 0.9A 0.7

Alerts, full history and rotation risk. £2.99/month.

Go premium

How we compute this

xPts multiplies each player's share of his team's predicted goals by the UCL Fantasy scoring rules, plus clean sheets, saves and ball recoveries. Goal and assist shares blend his UCL record with his domestic-league record this season; recoveries and cards are shrunk toward position averages. Picked is the share of all UCL Fantasy managers holding him. Treat small gaps between players as noise.

Full methodology

41	A. BastoniINT	DEF	5.0	CLU (H)	97%	4.69	7%▲	0.94	CS 1.4REC 1.2G 0.4
42	F. NmechaBVB	MID	6.5	BOD (A)	94%	4.68	2%	0.72	G 1.8REC 1.0
43	H. KaneBAY	FWD	11.0	VIK (A)	97%	4.67	54%▲	0.42	G 1.9A 0.9
44	E. BuendíaAVL	MID	6.0	FEN (H)	87%	4.66	1%▲	0.78	G 1.4REC 0.8A 0.6
45	R. BakuRBL	MID	4.5	PSV (H)	97%	4.65	0%	1.03	G 1.9REC 0.7